Democrat Kathy Hochul holds a slim 4-percentage-point lead over presumptive Republican Social gathering nominee Lee Zeldin within the race for governor, a brand new survey reveals.
The identical ballot reveals Zeldin main disgraced ex-Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo by six proportion factors in a hypothetical match-up.
Hochul — the previous lieutenant governor who grew to become the New York’s chief govt final August after Cuomo resigned amid a sexual harassment scandal — garnered the assist of 35% of voters to Zeldin’s 31%, with a few third of the voters undecided.
The survey of 830 possible voters — performed by analysis firm co/environment friendly for the Republican consulting agency Massive Canine Methods — has a margin of error of three.4 proportion factors.
There are warning indicators for Hochul, in line with the ballot. Forty-one % of voters view her unfavorably and 31% favorably — with greater than 1 / 4 undecided.
Hochul solely led Zeldin, a Lengthy Island congressman, within the downstate New York Metropolis and suburban market, 35% to 30%.
“Hochul is underperforming in areas the place she must do nicely. It reveals that Lengthy Island is transferring again into Republican arms,” mentioned Massive Canine consulting founder Chris Grant.
However Hochul led Zeldin in her hometown Buffalo area 60% to 19%.
The survey was performed from March 28-30 after Hochul introduced the $1 billion taxpayer subsidy deal to assist construct a brand new stadium for the Buffalo Payments and maintain the group in Western New York for no less than the subsequent 30 years.
“I believe she will get a little bit of a glow from the Payments announcement. Additionally, don’t underestimate the ‘hometown lady does nicely issue,’” Grant mentioned.
Zeldin led Hochul by greater than 35 factors within the Syracuse area and was barely forward in different components of upstate.
Ladies favored Hochul over Zeldin by 9 factors, whereas males have been break up between the 2.
The ballot confirmed Hochul with tepid assist from key Democratic constituencies — blacks and Latinos.
Nonetheless, Zeldin would have a greater probability of defeating the scandal-scarred Cuomo within the Democratic-leaning state.
The Massive Canine Methods survey has 37% of voters backing Zeldin, 31% backing Cuomo and a 3rd undecided.
White voters favored Zeldin by a 16-point margin, whereas blacks favored Cuomo by a 37-point margin — a a lot stronger determine than Hochul had amongst black voters.
Zeldin runs stronger towards Cuomo than Hochul upstate and holds a tiny 2-point lead over the ex-governor within the downstate area.
The ballot assumes each Hochul and Zeldin would be the nominees of their celebration — although each face primaries.
Hochul will sq. off towards metropolis Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and Lengthy Island Rep. Tom Suozzi within the Democratic major.
Zeldin faces a GOP major from Andrew Giuliani, the son of former New York Metropolis Mayor Rudy Giuliani who served as a White Home aide to former President Donald Trump, in addition to former Westchester County Government Rob Astorino and businessman Harry Wilson.