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Blue Jays and Rays provide season-long betting value

Two of Motion Community’s MLB analysts provide their futures picks for the AL East in 2022. 

Blue Jays to win AL East (+185, Caesars)

Mike Lanniello: Regardless of profitable 91 video games final season, the Blue Jays completed in fourth place within the strong AL East. That report would have been adequate for second place in 4 of the opposite 5 divisions. Primarily based on Pythagorean run differential, Toronto’s anticipated report final season ought to have been 99-63, which might have been good for second within the division and earned them the highest wild-card spot.

The Blue Jays have a fully loaded lineup. They led the league with a .340 wOBA (weighted On Base Common) final season, and completed second with 112 wRC+ (weighted Runs Created Plus). They misplaced infielder Marcus Semien however added third baseman Matt Chapman, who ought to have a bounce-back 12 months. The Jays additionally anticipate a full season of George Springer (.907 OPS in 78 video games final 12 months), and one other 12 months with younger stars Bo Bichette and MVP runner-up Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 

Reigning Cy Younger Award winner Robbie Ray signed with Seattle, however Toronto introduced in Kevin Gausman to offset the loss. Gausman, Jose Berrios and Hyun-Jin Ryu are an elite 1-2-3. Alek Manoah is simply 24 years outdated and his electrical stuff makes him a possible future star. Their No. 5 pitcher is Yusei Kikuchi, who was simply an AL All-Star final 12 months with the Mariners. MLB.com ranked them as each the most effective lineup and rotation within the American League.

Off the sphere, the Blue Jays even have an enormous benefit. After taking part in their residence video games in three completely different ballparks in 2021, the Jays will return to Rogers Centre full time this 12 months. As a consequence of strict COVID-19 protocols, unvaccinated visiting gamers are usually not in a position to play in Canada.

In a division with 4 groups inside 9 video games of one another final season, give me the staff with probably the most expertise within the AL, that may doubtlessly face shorthanded lineups 81 instances.

Rays Below 90.5 Wins (BetMGM)

Nick Shlain: The Rays have received a minimum of 90 video games in every of the final three full seasons. This 12 months, I believe the Rays fall again to the pack slightly bit. 

Tyler Glasnow of the Rays throughout media images.
MLB Images by way of Getty Photos

Tampa Bay has been leaking beginning pitching for years and located methods to beat the losses of Cy Younger winner Blake Snell and World Collection MVP Charlie Morton. Now, they should cope with the lack of ace pitcher Tyler Glasnow, who will miss all the season recovering from Tommy John surgical procedure. 

Tampa Bay’s solely vital offseason addition was right-handed starter Corey Kluber, who has thrown 116 ²/₃ innings whole within the final three years. Which means the Rays will rely quite a bit on the younger rotation arms of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Luis Patino and Shane Baz, who just lately had elbow surgical procedure to take away free our bodies. 


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Whereas all 4 of these pitchers are promising, I’m skeptical that they’re prepared to hold this pitching workers with out Glasnow, who posted 2.3 WAR a 12 months in the past regardless of throwing solely 88 innings. 

The Rays additionally misplaced reduction ace Collin McHugh (1.9 WAR) within the bullpen, third baseman Joey Wendle (3.8) and slugger Nelson Cruz (0.5) with out doing something to switch their manufacturing. 

Tampa Bay appears brief on paper and this quantity feels just a few wins too excessive as FanGraphs is projecting the Rays to go 86-76 this 12 months. Perhaps the Rays will make a commerce to enhance their staff, however given the present roster depth, any extra accidents to key gamers may very well be devastating. 

You’ll discover Tampa’s win whole at 89.5 at most books and I nonetheless just like the underneath there, however BetMGM has it at 90.5, which is worth too good to move up.

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