Back the underdog as one of two best bets

With the FA Cup semifinals happening on Saturday and Sunday, the English Premier League encompasses a smaller-than-usual six-game slate over the weekend. 

Two of the six matches stand out by way of betting worth:

Brighton (+500) vs. Tottenham Hotspur, 7:30 a.m. ET on Saturday

Regardless of the game, realizing when to promote excessive on in-form groups is an efficient skillset for bettors to develop. It’s extra artwork than science, making an attempt to determine when the market has lastly reached a tipping level on a specific group, however oftentimes the numbers may also help information you to a practical choice.

Tottenham Hotspur are on fireplace. With six wins from their final seven matches, Antonio Conte’s Spurs now appear like the favorites to nab the ultimate Champions League spot within the Premier League. 

Tottenham’s surface-level numbers throughout this 6-0-1 (Win-Draw-Loss) run sparkle. Spurs have scored 25 instances and conceded simply 5 targets. Tottenham have scored not less than two targets in every of their final seven video games and have netted 4 tallies 4 instances in that span. It’s been a whirlwind two months for the North London outfit, so it’s no surprise Spurs now discover themselves as -190 favorites over Brighton & Hove Albion.

Whereas Tottenham’s run has been spectacular and so they deserve full marks for getting themselves into the pole place for fourth-place, they’re operating fairly scorching offensively. Over their final seven video games Spurs have created 16.5 anticipated targets. That’s nonetheless a formidable quantity, nevertheless it lags behind their precise output of 25 targets. In some unspecified time in the future you’d count on Tottenham’s assault to sputter — if solely slightly bit — and open the door for a group to provide a shocking consequence.

Rodrigo Bentancur celebrates after a Tottenham win.
Getty Photos

Brighton & Hove Albion may very well be that group. Regardless of a horrendous run of kind, the Seagulls nonetheless profile as one of many EPL’s most harmful underdogs. Graham Potter’s membership upset Arsenal at an analogous worth final weekend and has sometimes given the “Large Six” hassle over the past yr. Along with that win over the Gunners, Brighton has earned attracts towards Chelsea (twice), Liverpool and Arsenal this season.

It’s been an atypical stretch for Potter’s Seagulls. Simply two matches faraway from a six-match shedding streak, Brighton has additionally struggled to manage matches. Referred to as the xG kings final season, the Seagulls have conceded extra anticipated targets than they’ve created in 9 of their final 11 matches. 

Brighton is best than what it’s proven over the previous couple of months and it is a good worth to purchase in on a turnaround from the Seagulls towards a group that has some destructive regression coming.

The Wager: Brighton +500 (all the way down to +470)

Brentford (+150) vs. Watford, 10 a.m. ET on Saturday

Whereas the market has most likely develop into too keen on Tottenham, it looks like there’s nonetheless alternative to hop in on the Brentford Bandwagon.

With 4 wins of their final 5 matches, the Bees went from a relegation scrap to a possible top-10 end of their first-ever Premier League season. And should you’ve been taking note of Brentford’s predictive metrics, you can see this scorching run coming. 

Over their final 5 matches, Brentford has 4 wins and a loss with a +8 objective differential. In response to Understat, the Bees have generated 10.05 xG in comparison with 4.4 xG towards. There’s nothing that screams “fluke!” about this present scorching stretch and it’s additionally no coincidence that Brentford’s greatest run of kind got here straight after the membership signed Christian Eriksen. The Nice Dane has supplied the Bees with the play-making prowess they’ve been lacking in the course of the sphere and his chemistry with star striker Ivan Toney has been excellent. 

Brentford will now make the brief journey from West London to Vicarage Street to tackle relegation-favorites Watford. Whereas the Bees are in terrific kind, the Hornets have been a multitude currently and appear all however doomed to be despatched all the way down to the Championship. 

It is a must-win match for Watford, however the Hornets don’t profile as the kind of group that ought to thrive on this state of affairs. Brentford is among the greatest urgent groups within the Premier League and the Hornets don’t have the ball-movers to beat the traces. Roy Hodgson’s groups sometimes like to take a seat again and take up strain earlier than countering, and that sort of soccer is okay in a relegation battle whenever you’re making an attempt to maintain tempo with the pack, however that isn’t Watford’s job proper now. The Hornets must swim as much as the floor, not tread water.

There’ll come a time to promote excessive on this Brentford membership, however this isn’t it. Getting +140 or higher on the Bees towards a membership that has misplaced 9 house matches on the spin appears good worth, even when it finally ends up being a sq. play.

The Wager: Brentford +140 or higher

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